Forecast



The current CAOEC 2024/25 Drilling and Service Rig Forecast was released on November 29, 2024.

Download the 2024 State of the Industry Report and 2025 Forecast (November 2024)


2025 Service Rig Forecast


Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Working Rigs = 478 Working Rigs = 407 Working Rigs = 475 Working Rigs = 529
Workable Fleet = 600 Workable Fleet = 600 Workable Fleet = 600 Workable Fleet = 600
Op Hours = 286,351 Op Hours = 218,523 Op Hours = 273,720 Op Hours = 285,489
Avg Hours Per Working Rig = 599 Avg Hours Per Working Rig = 537 Avg Hours Per Working Rig = 576 Avg Hours Per Working Rig = 540
Workable Rig Utilization = 73% Workable Rig Utilization = 56% Workable Rig Utilization = 70% Workable Rig Utilization = 73%


Average 

Average Working Rigs = 472
Total Operating Hours = 1,064,083
Average Workable Rig Utilization = 68%



2025 Drilling Rig Forecast

Total Wells (Western Canada): 6,604


Q1                                                Q2                                                Q3                                                Q4                                               
Active Rigs = 208                Active Rigs = 126                Active Rigs = 205                Active Rigs = 221               
Avg Fleet = 379 Avg Fleet = 374 Avg Fleet = 375 Avg Fleet = 376
Op Days** = 18,748 Op Days** = 11,408 Op Days** = 18,837 Op Days** = 20,351

 

Average 

Active Rigs = 190
Fleet = 376
Op Days** = 69,344

 

 

Assumptions

**Calculation based on spud to rig release
WTI = $77.00/bbl (USD)
AECO = $2.62/gj (CDN)
10.5 days/well


Operating Days & Wells Completed

Time Period

Average Active Rigs

Operating Days

Wells Drilled

2022 Actual

161

58,833

5,723

2023 Actual

159

57,944

5,389

2024 Actual + Forecast

178

64,638

6,156

2025 Forecast

190

69,344

6,604

 

Impact on Employment

Active Rigs

Direct Jobs

Indirect Jobs

Total Jobs

Jobs per Rig

20*

200*

220*

2022 Actual

119

3,229

32,291

35,520

2023 Actual

161

3,177

31,771

34,948

2024 Actual + Forecast

165

3,553

35,528

39,081

2025 Forecast

179

3,585

35,850

39,435

 
*Source CAOEC